Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
June 8, 2023
In the immediate aftermath of the SVB shock almost three months ago, …
key question was if SVB was a genuinely new shock hitting the economy, …
or i...
May 11, 2023
Last week’s GMV argued that sanctions on Russia have had limited effect.
Financial sanctions have not been powerful enough to shorten war in Ukraine....
May 4, 2023
Financial sanctions – even mild ones – can be highly effective, …
when they target current account deficit countries that import capital.
Their imp...
April 20, 2023
This Global Macro Views summarizes our impressions from the Spring Meetings.
The broad consensus is that deposit outflows from US banks after SVB ha...
March 30, 2023
We estimate that Russia’s energy price windfall amounts to $215 bn.
This windfall is the “excess” current account surplus from mid-2021, …
when ener...
February 9, 2023
Last week we wrote about the G7 price cap on Russian oil, …
arguing that it’s too early for a definitive assessment of the cap.
That’s because the s...
January 12, 2023
We last week began an examination of the global credit cycle, …
using consistent data across 32 advanced and emerging markets.
Credit boosted globa...
January 5, 2023
Recent years have seen profound shocks to the global economy, …
ranging from the ongoing COVID pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This Globa...
December 29, 2022
For many EM investors, 2022 was unfortunately a binary year, …
meaning you either foresaw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or you didn’t.
We did not rin...
December 22, 2022
We have been flagging a US disinflation dynamic since this summer.
That’s when inflation among CPI components became less broad-based, …
which ended...
December 15, 2022
We last week wrote about our positive outlook for EM in 2023.
Our positive view hinges on US inflation momentum having peaked, …
something we have b...
December 8, 2022
There’s widespread pessimism on prospects for EM in 2023.
That pessimism isn’t justified given our read of markets in 2022.
EM currencies held up fa...
December 1, 2022
We last week published our updated global growth forecast.
Adjusting for base effects, 2023 is likely to look as weak as 2009, …
with weakness radia...
November 24, 2022
The world was on the brink of global recession earlier this year.
War in Ukraine, high commodity prices and COVID have taken a toll, …
...
November 17, 2022
We have been in the dovish inflation camp since this summer, …
when our high-frequency metrics began to point to moderation, …
picking up a marked d...
November 10, 2022
Our last Global Macro Views was on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
Until 2022, government debt had been rising even as interest rates fell, …
creating...
November 3, 2022
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was all the rage two years ago.
At the time, global interest rates were low amid record fiscal deficits …
feeding the i...
October 27, 2022
Last week we reviewed key themes from discussions at our annual meetings.
We noted the lack of consensus around monetary tightening amid high inflati...
October 20, 2022
This Global Macro Views reports on the key macro debates at our annual meetings.
There’s no consensus on the direction monetary policy should take in...
October 13, 2022
We unveiled new data tracking tankers shipping oil out of Russia a few months ago.
The innovation to the database is that it identifies the ultimate ...