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Publications
Entries for 'EM Europe'
Brexit Update: Hard Brexit, It Is
January 17, 2017
Out means completely out In a long anticipated speech, Prime Minister May today laid out the principles informing her plan for exiting the European U
IIF Dispatch: Update on Turkey
January 11, 2017
In an attempt to ease depreciation pressures on the lira, the central bank lowered reserve requirements for FX liabilities and slightly tightened the
Hungary: Growth Falters as EU Subsidies Fall
December 22, 2016
Real GDP growth has slowed as EU budget transfers fell in 2016, despite supportive fiscal and monetary policies.' Lower growth prompted an increase in
Ukraine: Bold Move
December 20, 2016
The country's largest bank was nationalized on Sunday, December 18.' PrivatBank, owned by the oligarch and former Dnipro governor Ihor Kolomoisky, con
IIF Dispatch: Update from Ukraine
December 14, 2016
Real GDP growth remains weak, averaging 1% so far this year. Worryingly, growth momentum has rotated to private consumption in the third quarter, with
IIF Dispatch: Life after Renzi
December 5, 2016
As expected, Italians voted to reject proposed reforms to the Constitution, although the margin of 59-41 was much larger than projected by the polls (
Draghi's Dashboard: Trying to Avoid a Euro Taper Tantrum
December 5, 2016
At the ECB's Governing Council meeting on Thursday December 8, we expect President Mario Draghi to announce an extension of the asset purchase program
IIF Dispatch: Update on French Election
December 1, 2016
As expected after his clear first round victory, François Fillon beat Alain Juppé in the French Republican primary runoff on November 27 with 66.5%
Russia: Budget for Peace
December 1, 2016
The government has submitted its budgetary plans for years 2017-2019, in which it plans to reduce the deficit from expected 4.7% of GDP this year to 1
Ukraine: Uneasy Calm
November 30, 2016
The economy is slowly recovering on the back of growth in consumption and stabilizing inflation. Increasing consumption and lackluster export growth h
The Italian Constitutional Referendum
November 23, 2016
Italy to vote on reforms to limit the powers of the Senate We think a "No" vote is the most likely outcome PM Renzi likely to resign in the case of a
IIF Dispatch: Update from Hungary
November 22, 2016
Our recent trip to Budapest reaffirmed our view that policy framework is becoming increasingly more complicated in Hungary as the authorities are look
Brexit Update: More Complications
November 21, 2016
Economic resilience is coming to an end. Uncertainty is the only certainty in the Brexit process. Trump p
Romania: Riding an Unsustainable Stimulus Wave
November 10, 2016
Expansionary macroeconomic policies and buoyant consumer confidence are likely to propel near-term growth.' The widening trade deficit suggests that t
Czech Republic: Looking for a Smooth Exit
November 8, 2016
With the output gap closed, growth should reach 2.7% this year and 3% in 2017. Exports remain the main driver of growth, widening the current account
IIF Dispatch: Update from Romania
October 20, 2016
BRACE FOR IMPACT Our recent trip to Romania preceded parliamentary elections and coincided with the adoption of the Swiss franc mortgage conversion b
Draghi's Dashboard: Holding Off to December
October 19, 2016
At Thursday's meeting, the ECB Governing Council will face stubbornly low inflation despite an economic growth outlook that is slightly better than ex
Emerging Europe: Disappointing Convergence
October 4, 2016
Emerging Europe region is likely to grow modestly 1.2% this year and 2.1% in 2017. While real GDP growth is higher than last year's stagnation, it is
Prime Minister May Sets a Brexit Timetable
October 4, 2016
Article 50 to be triggered before April 2017. UK priorities point towards a "hard" Brexit. Financial services are in the crosshairs. Initial calm, but
Turkey: Adjusting To A Higher Risk Perception
September 28, 2016
The failed coup attempt on July 15 has intensified investor concerns, leading to repricing of Turkey's country risk and tilting growth risks to the do
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