Higher oil prices will likely help narrow the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP this year from 3.7% in 2016. The break-even oil price was decreasing from a
The Euro zone is a unique opportunity to examine Phillips curves at the country level. We examine for which countries within the Euro zone the Phillip
The central bank cut its key policy rate in line with the consensus by 25bps to 9%.' With the 12-month headline inflation close to its target, the cen
The central bank kept its key lending rates unchanged on June 15.' The expected Fed tightening through 2018 will likely reduce global risk appetite fo
This GMV begins our look at how QE affected balance sheets, by compiling flow of funds data on supply and demand of government bonds as consistently
Strong real GDP growth in 2017Q1 was in line with our above-consensus estimate.' Growth was fueled mainly by temporary tax cuts, with private consumpt
We are able to explain the trajectory of core inflation using a simple list of macro factors - including exchange rate movements, commodity prices and