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CEEMEA Views: Zambia - Pressure on Reserves

Zambia’s external financing picture will continue to deteriorate in 2020. Sharply lower commodity prices will be a drag on the current account. At the same time, external debt repayments are set to increase markedly. As a result, already low foreign reserves are likely to fall even further. Additional external support of $0.5-1.0 bn would likely stabilize reserves.

Weekly Insight: Surging Global Debt -- What's Owed to China?

With pandemic response a key driver, global debt is set to hit $325 trillion by 2025—up sharply from $255 trillion in 2019; U.S. general government debt is on track to exceed 120% of GDP this year, up from 102% in 2019; China’s total debt hit 317% of GDP in Q1 2020, up from 300% in Q4 2019—the largest quarterly increase on record; China is now the world’s largest bilateral lender to G20 DSSI-countries, holding some 25% of their external debt  

China Spotlight: The Credit and Fiscal Impulses

China’s rising CPI, elevated debt, and deteriorating external positions prevented strong credit stimulus in 2019. Policy impulses came mainly in the form of fiscal spending in 2018 and tax cuts in 2019. Stimulus in 2020 requires better coordination among fiscal, monetary and credit policies.

GMV: QE in Emerging Markets

The G-4 central banks are doing QE on an unprecedented scale, … led by the Fed whose weekly purchases annualize to $2.5 trillion Dollars, ......

The Big Questions: Ep. 4 - How Operational Resilience Helped Keep Firms Open During COVID-19

On this special episode of the Big Questions, we're looking back on a conversation between Jan Bellens, a partner and Global Banking & Capital...

IIF ESG Webinar: Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change

This week's IIF ESG Webinar features Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder and CEO, Four Twenty Seven; and Jing Zhang, Managing Director, Global Head of Quantitative Research, Moody's; speaking with Sonja Gibbs, Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance, Global Policy Initiatives, Institute of International Finance.

Macro Notes: SSA Increasingly Reliant on Portfolio Flows

Pressure on SSA assets has intensified due to COVID-19 related shocks. In this note, we analyze the composition of external flows to the region. SSA has become more globally integrated and reliant on portfolio flows. This makes the region more exposed to swings in investor sentiment.

Lebanon - Some Light at the End of the Tunnel 

Lebanese authorities have developed a five-year comprehensive reform program, which could be supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility. If implemented effectively we expect the macroeconomic situation to stabilize and an orderly debt restructuring, though significant challenges remain. 
 

IIF Sovereign Debt Webinar

This webinar addresses some of the significant questions about the credit implications of private sector participation in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)—in particular, whether in-scope countries can achieve suspension or payment deferral without triggering negative rating actions on country and bond ratings.

GRU Podcast: New Challenges in the Supervision of Global Insurers

IIF Insurance Lead Mary Frances Monroe discusses with Jonathan Dixon, IAIS Secretary General, the IAIS response to COVID-19 and how IAIS priorities are shifting as we recover from the global pandemic.

 

 

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