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Weekly Insight: Notes from Washington

ESG and sustainable finance top the policy agenda in last week’s IMF/World Bank (and IIF) meetings in Washington D.C.; Global growth set to decline to the slowest pace since the financial crisis; Strong start to U.S. Q3 earnings season, but rising corporate borrowing has been funding risk-taking, record payouts ; Carbon pricing initiatives are spreading but remain woefully insufficient to keep global warming to 2◦C

Global Macro Views: Rising Deflation Risk in the Euro Zone

The annual meetings were full of anecdotes on the severity of the German downturn. The diesel shock and new environmental standards weigh heavily on...

Macro Notes: IMF Meetings - Not as Bad as You Think

Investors finished the IMF/WB meetings on a less negative note. Concerns remain, but fewer worried about the risk of a recession. Monetary easing and a US-China trade deal would be supportive. Barring surprises from the Dollar, modest flows to EM are likely. The IMF's integrated policy framework remains a key topic for EM.

2019 PCG Report on Implementation of the Principles

The 2019 Report on the Implementation of the Principles takes stock of the quarterly discussions of the Principles Consultative Group (PCG), which includes senior officials from emerging and mature market economies as well as senior bankers, investors and sovereign debt experts.

Economic Views: Services Support Global Growth

Global manufacturing is weak but services are holding up, … giving us a reason to remain constructive on global activity.  Services ac...

2019 Presidents Report: Speech As Prepared For Delivery At The IIF Annual Membership Meeting

Each year Tim Adams, President and CEO of the IIF, takes an opportunity at the Annual Meetings to share a few thoughts on what the IIF has been working on throughout the year and what to expect from the IIF next year.

GMV: Key Macro Questions for the Annual Meetings

We review key macro questions going into the IIF Annual Membership Meetings. A central question is US and global recession risk, where we see fears ...

The Global Framework for Fighting Financial Crime: Enhancing Effectiveness & Improving Outcomes

Despite tens of billions of dollars being invested in anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) efforts worldwide, stemming the tide of economic crime remains incredibly challenging; the amount of money laundered globally each year is estimated to be 2% to 5% of global GDP, or between 715 billion and 1.87 trillion Euros. In this white paper, the IIF and Deloitte argue that greater emphasis must be placed on improving the legal and regulatory framework and risk management toolkit to enhance effectiveness.

Macro Notes: Portfolio Flows - Moderate Recovery to Continue

We expect a pickup in portfolio flows to emerging markets in 2020. 2019 saw a healthy recovery so far, despite slowing global growth. Central banks’ pivot towards monetary easing supports debt flows. Local markets appear to have attracted large inflows in 2019H1. This was true for established EMs as well as some frontier markets.

MENA: Forward Progress Faces Major Hurdles 

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.

 

 

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