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CEEMEA Views: Ukraine - Foreign Investor Interest is Picking Up

Robust growth has returned, driven by consumption. Non-resident inflows have led the Hryvnia to appreciate. A new IMF program is expected by the end of the year. The key risk to the outlook is potential for policy inaction. Public debt appears sustainable, assuming FX stability.

Weekly Insight: Carousel of worries

Ballooning universe of negative-yielding debt suggests little confidence that further policy easing will help; Lower borrowing costs will help high-debt mature economies—to a point; Negative rates and slowing growth—headwinds for bank profitability; We’ll take a late-summer break next week—next Weekly Insight will be on September 5

Machine Learning in Credit Risk: 2nd Edition Summary Report

Following on from the IIF’s 2018 Machine Learning in Credit Risk survey, our 2nd Edition (2019) survey tracks industry progress in the adoption and implementation of these technologies.

Global Macro Views: Argentina's Sudden Stop

The sharp drop in the Peso reflects another BoP “sudden stop,” which is likely to carry far-reaching consequences for the economy. The IMF forecast of -1.3% growth in 2019 assumes a recovery in H2, but that is now unlikely and a number at or below -2.5% is conceivable. As a counterpart to this, current account adjustment will accelerate, with the Peso now significantly undervalued in our fair value model.

Economic Views: Capital Flows and Argentina’s Elections

Resident outflows were a source of pressure in 2018. They are unlikely to abate as the election approaches since Argentina’s electoral cycles often prompt outflows. We are far from the outflows seen in the 2001 crisis, but the external funding picture will remain tough given limited resources left under the IMF program.

Egypt: Resilient Against External Headwinds, But Challenges Remain

Egypt has successfully completed the 3-year EFF arrangement with the IMF. Growth has accelerated, unemployment has decreased, the twin deficits have narrowed, core inflation has fallen, and the public debt ratio has started to decline.

IIF August Global Regulatory Update

The August 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, Insurance and upcoming events.

FRT Episode 45: TechSprint Takeaways With Jo Ann Barefoot

Jo Ann and the IIF’s Adrien Delle-Case give us their readout of the 2019 Global AML and Financial Crime Tech Sprint.

CEEMEA Views: Debt Distress in Zambia

Zambia borrowed extensively from abroad after 2015, leading to considerable external financing requirements. Fiscal and monetary policy will have to be contractionary, however, the level of adjustment needed is very large. Thus, Zambia is a prime candidate for an IMF program.

IIF Submits Response to the IAIS Consultation on the Holistic Framework

On August 15, IIF submitted a response letter to the IAIS consultation Revisions related to the Holistic Framework for Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector.

 

 

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