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Macro Notes: Impact of Sanctions on Russian Assets

The US and EU have introduced numerous financial sanctions on Russia. The first episode of multilateral sanctions in 2014 had the biggest impact. Limiting investor access to the Ruble market (OFZ) is unlikely to be as severe. Existing sanctions will weigh on investment, productivity, and growth.

Saudi Arabia: Investors’ Appetite For Saudi Equities Spiked Despite EM Sell-Off

Portfolio investments will be the main driver of foreign capital inflows increase to Saudi Arabia in 2019. Supported by the MSCI upgrade, Saudi Arabia has attracted $18 billion in foreign equity inflows so far this year.

Digital IDs in Financial Services Part 1: Embedding in AML Frameworks

As the first in a new 3-part series on Digital Identity, this paper explores the key considerations for international standard setters and local regulators on how to embed Digital Identity and promote widespread uptake. 

LatAm Views – Commodity Exporters' Contrasting Fortunes

We analyze external adjustment in Colombia, Peru, and Chile, commodity exporters with sound macro policy frameworks, in the aftermath of the decline in commodity prices. Despite real depreciation, exports have improved only modestly, with most of the adjustment due to significant import compression. 

ASEAN Economic Views: Indonesia -- Investment Constraints

Strong investment growth is a prerequisite for Indonesia to grow faster than 6% per annum. The global commodity cycle, competitive external investment environment, and limited policy stimulus are potential headwinds to a meaningful pick-up in investment. 

Climate-related Financial Disclosures: Examples of Leading Practices in TCFD Reporting by Financial Firms

This report, produced under the auspices of the IIF SFWG, aims to provide insight on current “leading practices” among financial firms in implementing TCFD recommendations, providing a snapshot of “what good disclosure looks like.” These examples should help prompt discussion within the industry and inform dialogue with regulators and supervisors on how to achieve the goals of the TCFD, particularly on appropriate pricing of climate-related risks and financial stability.

Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA): Economic Relationships in Flux 

CCA countries have diversified their economic linkages. The EEU and the Belt Road initiative serve as channels for Russia and China to exert influence. While Russia remains a key partner with respect to trade, labor markets and FDI in some countries, China's prominence is increasing markedly.

CEEMEA Views: Ukraine - Foreign Investor Interest is Picking Up

Robust growth has returned, driven by consumption. Non-resident inflows have led the Hryvnia to appreciate. A new IMF program is expected by the end of the year. The key risk to the outlook is potential for policy inaction. Public debt appears sustainable, assuming FX stability.

Weekly Insight: Carousel of worries

Ballooning universe of negative-yielding debt suggests little confidence that further policy easing will help; Lower borrowing costs will help high-debt mature economies—to a point; Negative rates and slowing growth—headwinds for bank profitability; We’ll take a late-summer break next week—next Weekly Insight will be on September 5

Machine Learning in Credit Risk: 2nd Edition Summary Report

Following on from the IIF’s 2018 Machine Learning in Credit Risk survey, our 2nd Edition (2019) survey tracks industry progress in the adoption and implementation of these technologies.




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