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Macro Notes: South Africa - Time is Running Out

Weak growth has led to deteriorating debt dynamics in recent years. Falling business and consumer confidence do not point to a recovery. External imbalances remain despite weak activity and depreciation. Interest payments to non-residents have risen sharply due to high debt. The Rand is vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment and portfolio flows.

GRU Podcast with Tom Wilson, CRO of Allianz and Chair of the Insurance Regulatory Committee

During the 2019 IIF Annual Membership Meeting, Tom Wilson, CRO of Allianz and Chair of the Insurance Regulatory Committee, shares his insights on curr...

Economic Views: India’s Credit-Driven Slowdown

GDP growth in India slowed significantly since mid-2018. Global factors such as trade tensions played a limited role. A shock to shadow banks larg...

Saudi Arabia: Recovering, but not fast enough

We expect non-oil growth to accelerate to 3.0% as private sector confidence improves and the monetary stance eases. However, overall growth will likely drop to 0.5%, dragged down by a significant cut in crude oil production. 

November U.S. Regulatory Update 

The November U.S. Regulatory Update covers the Federal Reserve’s final foreign banking organization tailoring rules, the revised Volcker Rule approval, CFTC and OCC news, along with Congressional updates and hearings summaries, and more. 

GMV: Inflation-consistent NAIRUs for Italy and Spain

Consensus NAIRU estimates put Italy and Spain close to full employment, ... even though the pace of underlying inflation has been subdued for many y...

Weekly Insight: Climate super year ahead?

ESG, demographics, technological progress: three key pillars in greening the global economy—and financial system; Record flows into ESG-dedicated ETFs in October, bringing year-to-date flows to over $40 billion—65% higher vs 2018 ytd; ESG bond performance on par with investment-grade credit—little distinction in pricing as yet; Will 2020 be a climate “super year?” Achieving net zero global emissions by 2050 requires emissions to peak next year 

Frontier LatAm – Favorable Current Account Dynamics 

Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm are wide by EM standards, largely due to energy trade imbalances, but lower oil prices since 2014 have helped ease financing gaps. Despite global headwinds and regional tensions, we project CA deficits to stay contained in 2019-20, broadly financed by FDI. 

GMV: Weak EM Currencies Are Failing to Lift Exports

Many EM currencies have fallen sharply in recent years, including the Turkish Lira, Colombian Peso and Russian Ruble. 

10th Annual IIF/EY Global Risk Management Survey 

The 10th Annual IIF/EY Global Bank Risk Management Survey, “An endurance course: Surviving and thriving through 10 major risks over the next decade”, carried out by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and EY, observes and reports on changes in how banks manage risk. 

 

 

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