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Weekly Insight: Big green light

Disconnect between Fed dots and market rate expectations set to persist; Negative-yielding debt hits a record high of over $12 trillion—putting the risk of asset price bubbles in focus; Further USD strength could pose significant challenges for non-bank borrowers in emerging markets and mature markets outside the U.S.; More monetary stimulus would widen the gap between the cost of equity and debt, triggering another sharp accumulation in corporate debt; Robust growth in Panda bond issuance 

Saudi Arabia: Equity Inflows Surge With Capital Market Reforms

Supported by MSCI upgrade Saudi Arabia has attracted $10.8bn in foreign equity inflows so far this year. In contrast, renewed trade tensions sparked a sharp decline in portfolio equity flows to other EMs. Saudi Arabia can count on an additional $40bn in equity inflows in the coming years. 
 

Global Macro Views: Trade Tensions and Global Growth

Our global growth tracker has fallen to its lowest levels since 2015, driven by a sharp drop in manufacturing sentiment around the world. The evidence points to normal ups and downs in global manufacturing, with some early signs that hard-hit places like Germany are turning up.

CEEMEA Views: Romania - Growing Imbalances

Consumption-driven growth has led to increasing imbalances and inflation. Ad-hoc policy changes weigh on sentiment, undermining new investment. Further stimulus would pose risks to macroeconomic stability and outlook. 

Economic Views: Argentina's Debt Risk

Argentina’s public debt will decline markedly, if fiscal consolidation is large and long-lasting. Fiscal easing could critically affect debt levels, and complicate refinancing of maturing debt. Debt vulnerability will remain high for years.

IIF responds to IASB Exposure Draft on IBOR reform

The IIF has submitted a comment letter to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) Exposure Draft Interest Rate Benchmark Reform – Pr...

FRT Episode 39: S&P CEO Doug Peterson

S&P CEO Doug Peterson joined FRT during the IIF Spring Membership Meeting & G20 conference in Tokyo, discussing investments in innovative technologies, environmental management tools and metrics on plastics footprints, and the necessary evolution of pension systems.

 

May 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 3.8% 3m/3m SAAR in May. Business and financial conditions drag growth down. Imports appear to have bottomed out, improving trade.

June 2019 Global Regulatory Update

The June 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on Advocacy on Addressing Market Fragmentation, Evaluation of Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) Reforms and the Basel III Finalization & Cumulative Capital Impact Study.

Weekly Insight: Trade wars bad, lower rates good

Analysts begin to price in trade war impact on corporate earnings—but estimates are still pretty upbeat; Emerging markets: how long will the boost from lower global rates last?; Risk-return tradeoff on carry trades looking more attractive; Convergence in the air for Euro Area bond spreads; LIBOR transition—some progress on moving towards new reference rates, but asset managers lag

 

 

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