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Global Macro Views: Nonsense Output Gaps and Current Account Positions

Euro periphery current account balances have almost all swung into surplus, which is often cited as positive evidence that competitiveness has been restored. But the swing to current account surplus has a big cyclical component due to still large output gaps in some cases. Adjusted for slack, Euro periphery current accounts are mostly still in deficit.

Macro Notes: Positive Shift in Ukraine’s Current Account

We have estimated Ukraine’s financing gap at $2 bn (1.5% of GDP). A key ingredient is a stable current account despite growth recovery. This is due to a favorable shift in the current account toward the EU. Domestic politics aside, a key risk is the growth slowdown in Europe.

Economic Views: Venezuela’s Oil Sector under Sanctions

Venezuela’s oil sector has been in decline for decades. As in Iran, US sanctions are having a severe impact, making the oil output collapse almost unprecedented. Even though sanctions did not deter Asian buyers, the oil sector’s outlook is dim unless policies change.

FRT Episode 38: Debunking Misconceptions on Machine Learning Interpretability

FRT welcomes Dr. Bill Kahn, leading data scientist and financial modeling executive, formerly at Bank of America where he led the IIF Machine Learning...

Voluntary Principles For Debt Transparency

A new set of private sector principles to enhance transparency in sovereign debt markets.

G20 Supports the IIF’s Principles for Debt Transparency

This weekend, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors issued a statement of support for the Institute of International Finance (IIF)’s Voluntary Principles for Debt Transparency following a meeting in Fukuoka, Japan. 

Remarks To G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

As prepared for delivery to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Fukuoka, Japan   Introduction Thank you, Depu...

Global Macro Views: Nonsense Output Gaps and the Phillips Curve

Phillips curves provide a useful lens through which to look at output gaps, since they link the degree of economic slack to the pace of underlying inflation. Estimates for structural unemployment in the Euro periphery look too high given how low inflation historically, which supports our earlier analysis that Euro periphery output gaps remain large.

Saudi Arabia: Increase in U.S. Treasury Holdings

Holdings of U.S. Treasuries have increased, driven by portfolio restructuring in GOSI and the PIF. As across the GCC, public foreign assets exceed official reserves of the central bank. A further increase in the PIF’s assets abroad is set to improve the country's international investment position. 

Sustainable Finance in Focus: Climate change: a core financial stability risk

In this short overview, we highlight climate risks to financial stability; Even in a benign scenario, some $2.5 trillion of global financial assets are estimated to be at risk from the impact of climate change; A low-carbon transition can have a substantial positive net growth effect on GDP, outweighing costs... but transition and physical risks are growing as countries fall behind on emission targets

 

 

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