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GMV: China and the EM Positioning Overhang

China’s big 2009 stimulus was a major boost for EM, … because it lifted commodity prices and the terms of trade. There is no similar ...

FRT Episode 78: Identity, Inclusion & Interoperability

With the criticality of Digital Identity underlined by the pandemic and recent economic shifts, we discuss the opportunities to support SMEs in the digital economy and promote financial inclusion, and the importance of enabling interoperability.

LatAm Views - Restrained Growth Recovery 

We forecast a modest activity upturn in 2021 from a deep recession this year. Mexico, Argentina, and Peru are set to suffer the largest output contractions regionwide. A weak global backdrop, pre-existing challenges, and eroded policy buffers could complicate the recovery.

Macro Notes: EM Asia - Gradual Recovery in Capital Flows

We expect a stronger recovery in capital flows to Asia relative to other EMs in 2021. FDI remains an important driver, with India and Indonesia as the largest recipients. Relatively robust inflows and c/a adjustments in ‘20 allow for reserve accumulation. A reemergence of COVID-19 and geopolitical factors are the key risks to the outlook.

Economic Views: Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s debt ratio will continue increasing, … unless new fiscal measures offset recent tax reform. External borrowing needs are ...

Weekly Insight: Gross Financing Needs in DSSI-eligible Countries

Gross external financing needs of DSSI-eligible countries are set to remain high at over $260bn (12.5% of GDP) in 2021; General government debt in DSSI-eligible countries is projected to peak at 56% of GDP in 2021—up from 50% in 2019

GMV: How big is the EM Positioning Overhang?

EM positioning by foreign investors has moved back into focus, ... given event risk around US elections and COVID-19 second waves. The recovery in...

Macro Notes: CEEMEA - Capital Flows Recovery in 2021

We expect a slow and uneven recovery in non-resident capital flows globally. CEEMEA should fare somewhat better with a broad pickup in ‘20H2 and ‘21. The recovery will likely be driven by stronger FDI and portfolio capital flows. A possible COVID-19 resurgence and geopolitical risks weigh on the outlook. If sentiment worsens, Turkey, South Africa, and Ukraine will be most exposed.

Economic Views: Chile’s Pension Withdrawals and Growth

Chileans withdrew large amounts from pension funds, … boosting consumption and imports of durables sharply.  GDP growth could improve ...

MENA: COVID-19, Plunge in Oil Price Underscore Importance of Reform

We forecast a deep contraction in 2020, followed by a modest recovery in 2021. The biggest economies, with their large buffers and low debt, are best prepared for the difficult environment. Broadly, the region needs to implement major reforms to improve competitiveness and curtail corruption. 
 

 

 

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