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Global Macro Views: The Growing Debate over Output Gaps

We started the Campaign against Nonsense Output Gaps (CANOO) earlier this year, ... arguing that consensus estimates for Euro periphery output gaps ...

Macro Notes: South Africa - Debt Sustainability in Question

South Africa’s debt could reach as high as 95% of GDP in a pessimistic scenario. Low growth, high interest payments, and a decade of mismanagement are at fault. SOEs are a drain on public finances, and Eskom alone could add 6pp to debt. Mitigating factors are SARB independence, limited FX debt, and long maturities. Moody’s may put SA on negative watch but keep the IG rating for a little longer.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: The Snapback

Portfolio flows to Emerging Markets were $37.7 bn in September. Equity and debt flows were $10.3 bn and $27.6 bn, respectively. Net capital flows ...

Economic Views: High-Debt IMF Programs

We study past high public debt IMF programs. Most achieved substantial debt reductions, … especially when debt restructuring was used. Pr...

Uzbekistan: Opening towards the world 

Following the change in political leadership, Uzbekistan embarked on a path of structural reforms and economic opening. Growth is expected to pick up driven by large public investments. Continued credit boom, slowing reform momentum and external shocks present key challenges to the outlook. 

FRT Episode 48: Cloud and Critical Infrastructure

IIF authors Brad Carr and Daniel Pujazon debrief our recent paper on Cloud Service Providers, and some of the potential regulatory treatments for the increasingly critical role they play in the financial system.

IIF Joins 11 Other Associations In Letter In Support Of ILLICIT CASH Act

The Institute for International Finance joined a broad coalition of trade associations in submitting this letter to Congress in support of the Illicit Cash Act.

Weekly Insight: Going for Green

Buzz from Climate Week in New York—key role of financial firms in the transition to a low-carbon economy; Carbon pricing in focus—politically challenging but progress being made; Footprint of foreign banks in China still small — less than 2% of sector assets — and likely to remain so in the medium term…key growth impediments include digital bank competition, trade/geopolitical tensions, and limited retail banking prospects

GMV: The Manufacturing Recession vs the Services Economy

The global outlook is in a horse race between weak manufacturing and solid services. We show there is little spillover from weak manufacturing to th...

Machine Learning Recommendations for Policymakers 

This paper articulates how policymakers and supervisors can assist in ensuring safe machine learning innovation, harnessing the benefits of these new technologies while minimizing and mitigating risks.

 

 

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