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Economic Views: Risk of Social Tensions in EM

Social and political stress afflicted EM last year, … absent macroeconomic vulnerability in some cases. We introduce scores of social stres...

Iran: Sanctions continue to batter the economy 

U.S. sanctions have almost wiped out Iran’s ability to sell crude oil, pushing the economy into recession for a second year and spurring the authorities to increase taxes and cut subsidies. While they are reluctant to renegotiate the nuclear deal, the country's medium-term potential is considerable.

IIF Response to BCBS Open Banking Report 

On January 13, the IIF responded to the Basel Committee’s recent report on open banking and application programming interfaces. 

January 2020 Global Debt Monitor: Sustainability Matters

The global debt-to-GDP ratio hit a new all-time high of over 322% in Q3 2019, with total debt reaching close to $253 trillion. Global debt is set to grow faster in 2020 and is estimated to exceed $257 trillion by the end of Q1 2020, driven mainly by non-financial sector debt. 

Weekly Insight: Liquidity trumps geopolitics

Amid easier financial conditions and ample liquidity, rising geopolitical tensions leave markets unfazed; With reliance on debt financing on the rise, the global bond universe is fast approaching $120 trillion; Cheap debt and subdued post-crisis equity returns in many markets weigh on IPO activity; Plummeting SOFR-linked issuance in Q4 2019 highlights concerns over transition away from USD LIBOR; China to launch national carbon emissions trading scheme in 2020

GMV: The EM Secular Stagnation Problem

Our last piece of 2019 introduced the idea of “secular stagnation” in EM, ... whereby growth is down sharply in recent years, driven by ...

Macro Notes: EM Flows - Investors Likely More Selective in 2020

Looser DM monetary policy and the US-China truce drove flows to EM. 2019 saw an important rebound in portfolio flows compared to 2018. Foreign currency and local debt attracted the bulk of non-resident flows. Going forward, foreign investors will likely focus on idiosyncratic stories.

Economic Views: Non-resident Forwards in Chile

We are expanding our capital flows data to include derivatives, starting with an analysis of non-resident currency forwards in Chile. On aggregate, non-residents are usually short CLP via forwards. The correlation between forwards and capital flows isn’t very strong. Recent drops in carry did not result in a shorter forward position.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Equities Rebound

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $30.7 bn in December. Equity and debt were $12.9 bn and $17.8 bn, respectively. Net capital flows to EM reached $0.7 bn in November.

FRT Episode 56: InsureTech with Allianz CRO Tom Wilson

Allianz CRO Tom Wilson shares his insights on the transformation of the insurance business model, including through the growth of InsureTech solutions (with Mary Frances Monroe).



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