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Publications

CEEMEA Views: South Africa - The 2019 Budget Leaves a Narrow Path

South Africa’s Budget 2019 includes adjustments, which are markedly offset by sizable bailout funding for Eskom, leaving the government’s deficit targets to widen compared to those presented last October. The worsening fiscal position and rising public debt are key risks for the credit rating.

FRT Episode 25: Live from the IIF Asia-Pacific CRO Forum in Sydney

On the occasion of the IIF Asia-Pacific CRO Forum in Sydney, FRT welcomes Chief Risk Officers Shaun Dooley (National Australia Bank) and So Lan Ip (Pi...

Angola: On the Road to Stability

Angola is seeking to make its growth model more sustainable, inclusive, and diversified. An IMF program has started, and policy adjustment is underway, but benefits will take time to accrue. Evidence connecting key figures to a Mozambican scandal may limit the credibility of the reform drive. 

Weekly Insight: Steamless rally

Return to low volatility has underpinned the risk rally, but a less-dovish Fed could hurt; Term premium compression again—bond markets to the rescue?; MiFID II ushers in a decline in turnover, shift towards cheaper ETFs in the EU; Older Americans shoulder a growing burden of student loan debt 

Global Macro Views: Updating our EM FX Fair Values

This Global Macro Views updates our fair value estimates for EM FX, incorporating large exchange rate, current account and activity moves. Argentina’s Peso and the Turkish Lira are only mildly expensive here, while India, Indonesia and South Africa remain overvalued in FX terms. EM Asia continues to be significantly undervalued, including China.

Egypt: Good Progress to Date, but Sustainability Requires Deep, Transformational Change

Egypt is making good progress on economic reforms in the context of an IMF-supported program. However, to sustain the progress and to lift the growth trajectory durably over the long term, deeper and more fundamental reforms are urgently needed.

Economic Views: Venezuela's External Outlook

External funding dried up as the economy collapsed, pushing the current account roughly into balance. Import compression was unavoidable as exports fell. External deficits are not the issue, unlike past EM crises.

February 2019 Global Regulatory Update

February 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the 2019 workplan of the Financial Stability Board, and updates on current work streams in Market Fragmentation, Market Risk, Accounting, Operational Resilience, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, AML/CFT, Insurance and upcoming events.

GRU Podcast: Financial Stability Board 2019 Work Plan

Financial Stability Board (FSB) Secretary-General Dietrich Domanski joins GRU, discussing the FSB’s work plan for 2019 and its emphasis on addressing new financial system vulnerabilities and evaluation of effects of policy reforms. (Andres Portilla, Brad Carr)

Weekly Insight: Looking for a Sweeter Deal

Sharp improvement in risk appetite reflects improved valuations as well as more supportive Fed policy; As new U.S. sanctions take hold, holders of Venezuelan bonds contemplate next steps; Wobbles in the leveraged loan market; millennials give a boost to U.S. commercial real estate; ESG index performance—doing good doesn’t mean giving up returns, especially in emerging markets!

 

 

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