Publications

Frontier LatAm: Costa Rica’s External Financing Needs

July 30, 2020

COVID-19 has exacerbated Costa Rica’s external and fiscal imbalances. We project a widening of the current account deficit driven by the services sector. Further IMF funding would be needed to cover a potential external financing gap. External risk remains tied to substantial fiscal vulnerability.

GMV: COVID-19 and the Missing Inflation Puzzle

July 30, 2020

The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, ... something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.” Risi...

Macro Notes: EM Asia - COVID-Induced External Adjustment

July 29, 2020

We analyze external adjustments in EM Asia following the COVID-19 shock. Cross-border flows are shifting considerably in many countries in the region. The global recession weighs on exports and weak domestic demand on imports. Other sources of FX inflows have come under significant pressure as well in H1. This includes both international tourism revenues and workers’ remittances.

ESG Webinar Series: Climate Change and Sovereign Risk

July 28, 2020

The Climate Change and Sovereign Risk webinar was part of the IIF ESG Webinar Series, which was designed to promote understanding of the rapidly evolving landscape for ESG disclosure and to align efforts to measure and track climate finance.

Economic Views: South Africa’s External Vulnerability

July 28, 2020

South Africa faces a combination of fiscal and external risk. Large current account deficits will not re-emerge soon, … but nonresident holdings o...

China Spotlight: Growing Economic Ties With ASEAN

July 28, 2020

The ASEAN region is now China’s largest trading partner, top tourism destination, and a key investment partner. However, the depth of these relationships vary among the individual ASEAN member states. We expect economic integration to continue in the region.

FRT Episode 73: The Open Digital Trust Initiative

July 27, 2020

With COVID-19 ushering the increased digitalization of the economy and placing an increased emphasis on Digital Identity, Rod Boothby (Global Head of Identity at Santander) and Don Thibeau (Executive Director of the OpenID Foundation) visit FRT to discuss an important initiative for enabling online trust.

Green Weekly Insight: Voluntary Carbon Offsets—A Primer

July 23, 2020

Voluntary carbon markets have picked up in recent years, with offset issuances reaching record highs in 2019; Sharp rise in “offset retirement” volumes since 2016 highlights increased demand for voluntary carbon offset markets; India, China, Indonesia, Peru and Brazil are the largest suppliers of voluntary carbon offsets; Verified Carbon Standard is the largest voluntary carbon offset registry with a market share of some 75% among the four major registries

GMV: Ecuador and Ukraine Exchange Rate Valuation

July 23, 2020

Our exchange rate fair value model rarely sends big overvaluation signals. It flagged Turkey and Argentina in early 2018 and South Africa in late 20...

ESG Webinar Series: Banking the Future of Sustainable Finance

July 22, 2020

The Banking the Future of Sustainable Finance webinar was part of the IIF ESG Webinar Series, which was designed to promote understanding of the rapidly evolving landscape for ESG disclosure and to align efforts to measure and track climate finance.

China Spotlight: PBoC Halts Pandemic Stimulus

July 22, 2020

Concerned with the economy's already-high debt levels and RMB stability, the PBoC was the least dovish major central bank this year. The PBoC has begun to suspend even this moderate pandemic emergency stimulus as China’s economy recovers and as concerns about financial froth increase.

Macro Notes: EM Core Inflation Subdued During COVID-19

July 22, 2020

We update our analysis of EM inflation dynamics in light of the COVID-19 crisis. Core inflation is a better gauge of domestic balances than the headline number. In many emerging markets, core inflation slowed in Q2 compared to early-2020. This, together with higher credibility, allowed many central banks to ease policy. While inflation risks appear moderate, fiscal dominance could change the picture.

Economic Views: EM External Vulnerability under COVID-19

July 21, 2020

Recession will shrink current account deficits drastically, … reducing EM external financing needs and vulnerability. However, external amortiza...

IIF Response to FSB Cyber Incident Response and Recovery Toolkit

July 20, 2020

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) today responded to the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Consultative Document “Effective Practices for Cyber Incident Response and Recovery”.

Global Debt Monitor: Sharp Spike In Global Debt Ratios

July 16, 2020

Pandemic-driven recessionary conditions pushed global debt-to-GDP to a new record of 331% of GDP ($258T) in Q1, up from 320% in Q4 2019. Debt in mature markets reached 392% of GDP (vs 380% in 2019). Canada, France and Norway saw the largest increases. EM debt surged to over 230% of GDP in Q1 2020 (vs 220% in 2019), largely driven by non-financial corporates in China.

IIF Response to EC Consultation on a Renewed Sustainable Finance Strategy

July 16, 2020

On July 15, the IIF submitted a high-level response to the European Commission’s public consultation on the development of a Renewed Sustainable Finance Strategy (RSFS). Drawing on engagements with the IIF Sustainable Finance Working Group, this response is focused on topics of international relevance.

GMV: Brazil vs Turkey in the COVID-19 Shock

July 16, 2020

Brazil has been hit harder than Turkey in the COVID-19 shock, ... with the Real down 25 percent in 2020 versus 13 percent for the Lira. That pictu...

ESG Webinar: Socio-Economic Dimensions of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Africa’s Response

July 15, 2020

This week's ESG Webinar provided insight into the social and economic development implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for Africa and presented a detailed review of how the continent has responded thus far. We also covered some of the specific challenges facing the continent at this time and highlighted some innovative aspects of Africa’s response.

Comment Letter: FSB Global Stablecoins Consultative Document

July 15, 2020

The IIF has provided comment on the FSB consultative document Addressing the regulatory, supervisory and oversight challenges raised by “global stablecoin” arrangements, published on April 14, 2020.

Progress Update on Private Sector Engagement in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)

July 15, 2020

Following discussions during the Paris Forum/G20 event on July 8, we are pleased to provide the following progress update on private sector engagement with respect to the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).