The IIF provides ongoing, cutting-edge analysis of international capital flows. Our flagship products are the Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Report (three times a year), the monthly Portfolio Flows Tracker, and our various proprietary capital flows databases. In addition, we occasionally produce one-off research notes on topical issues.

IIF capital flows data are widely used and referenced in the press and the international financial community. Detailed datasets are available to IIF members, while a selection of our data is available to the general public. For more detailed information on our capital flows data, please consult our Data Overview and User Guide. If you would like to receive our reports and data when they are released, please subscribe here

Documents & Resources

April 25, 2016

China has seen a dramatic swing from net capital inflows to large net outflows in recent years. Much of this downshift is due to a sharp reduction in non-resident capital inflows, driven by a shift in investor expectations about the path of the RMB and concerns about China's economic outlook. While flows have stabilized in recent months there remain risks that outflows could accelerate again if concerns about RMB depreciation intensify again.

April 7, 2016

Since our January report, emerging markets have staged a striking turnaround as asset prices have bounced back and inflows revived. We continue to project substantial net outflows from EMs of about $500 billion in 2016, down from around $750 billion in 2015.

February 9, 2016

This note lays out the IIF’s framework for tracking capital flows to and from China on a timely basis. We estimate that net capital outflows amounted to some $113 billion in January 2016, marking the 22nd consecutive month of net outflows from China.

January 19, 2016

Net capital outflows from emerging markets in 2015 were even larger than we previously thought. We expect EM capital flows to remain under pressure in 2016, although the pace of net outflows should diminish.

October 15, 2015

As highlighted in our most recent capital flows report issued on October 1, recent months have seen a major retrenchment of capital flows to emerging markets. This slide deck brings together key charts tracking recent flows, our latest projections and analysis of cross-country vulnerabilities.

October 1, 2015

Capital flows to emerging markets have weakened sharply in recent months. We project 2015 non-resident capital inflows to fall below 2008 levels. With resident capital outflows rising, net capital flows to EMs in 2015 are forecast to be negative for the first time since 1988. Unlike the 2008 crisis, the pullback from EMs has been driven primarily by internal factors, reflecting a sustained slowdown in EM growth, amplified by rising uncertainty about China’s economy and policies.

August 21, 2015

* There have been recent reports about capital outflows to the tune of $1 trillion from emerging markets.
* We disagree with the underlying estimations and look at a range of measures of capital flows.
* IIF estimates of the same concept and a broader look at capital flows developments do show a recent weakening of EM capital flows but at a much smaller scale than the purported $1 trillion.

May 28, 2015

After a slow start to the year, private capital inflows to EMs are projected to subside to $981 billion this year, which would be the weakest outcome since the global financial crisis. In part, the weakness in flows projected for 2015 reflects developments that have already occurred as capital inflows are estimated to have reached a six-year low in 2015Q1 in the context of weak EM GDP growth. We project a pickup in flows in 2016, but stress downside risks related to the possibility of more aggressive Fed tightening and continued stagnation in global growth.

April 23, 2015
This paper provides a concise summary of the vast literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The importance of different drivers varies across different kinds of capital flows (Figure 1). External "push" factors like U.S. interest rates and global risk aversion matter most for portfolio flows. By contrast, domestic "pull" factors like growth and country risk are most important for banking flows.
January 14, 2015

After a rough ride in 2014, we expect 2015 to be another stressful year for capital flows to emerging markets. We project total EM inflows to decline further, after a substantial drop last year, as the Fed starts to raise policy rates and EM growth remains lackluster. Flows during the year are again likely to be volatile, as markets are affected by shifting expectations of the Fed’s policy trajectory, oil market uncertainty and political risks.

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March 12, 2014