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GMV: The EM Flows Recovery

Our view has been that a COVID-19 vaccine would be good news for EM, … because a vaccine is a positive boost to global demand and commodity p...

Iran: Nuclear Deal Uncertainty May Persist 

Despite Biden’s election, the future of the nuclear deal (JCPOA) remains uncertain due to hardliner resistance in Iran and a divided US Congress. Failure to renegotiate the deal would likely keep the economy fragile. On the other hand, Iran’s economic potential is high if U.S. sanctions are lifted. 

Macro Notes: Ukraine - Muddling Through for a Bit Longer

Our outlook for Ukraine has steadily worsened over the last twelve months. Pressure on the NBU and unwinding of anti-corruption reforms are to blame. However, Ukraine will likely manage to muddle through in the coming months. Only when macro-policies become untenable, a return to the IMF will occur.

LatAm Views: Favorable Reserve Dynamics 

Foreign reserves have recovered faster under COVID-19 than during the GFC. Import compression, dollar bond issuance, and XR adjustment have helped several countries strengthen their positions. Despite demanding funding needs in 2021, robust external liquidity should help avoid market dislocations. 

Economic Views: Argentina’s Next IMF Program

Argentina is negotiating with the IMF to roll over its loan. We study whether this is enough to meet financing needs. We see reserve losses if the...

Weekly Insight: More debt, more trouble

Global debt has piled up at an unprecedented pace since 2016, increasing by over $52tn vs a $6tn rise over 2012-16; Less bang for the buck: the capacity of debt to generate growth is diminishing, and investment remains subdued; EM governments face increasing interest burdens, notably in Turkey, India, South Africa, and the Philippines; Small businesses have seen a much bigger increase in debt-to-revenue ratios than have larger firms.  

GMV: Updating our Exchange Rate Fair Values

The Dollar is substantially overvalued against emerging markets. We look at EM as two very distinct blocks: China and everybody else. Our long-sta...

Global Debt Monitor: Attack of the Debt Tsunami

Global debt has surged by over $15 trillion since 2019, hitting a new record of over $272 trillion in Q3 2020. As the fiscal response to the pandemic continues, we expect global debt to hit $277 trillion (365% of GDP) by end-2020

Macro Notes: Zambia - Changes to the Policy Mix Are Needed

External and domestic imbalances will require meaningful policy changes. Fiscal consolidation is critical to eliminate monetary financing of deficits. This should reduce inflationary pressures and limit Kwacha depreciation. A multi-year IMF program will likely be needed to implement such changes.

IIF Comments on FinCEN AML Program Effectiveness ANPR

The IIF has provided comments on the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on AML Program Effectiveness. 

 

 

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