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CEEMEA Views: Debt Distress in Zambia

Zambia borrowed extensively from abroad after 2015, leading to considerable external financing requirements. Fiscal and monetary policy will have to be contractionary, however, the level of adjustment needed is very large. Thus, Zambia is a prime candidate for an IMF program.

IIF August Global Regulatory Update

The August 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, Insurance and upcoming events. 

IIF Submits Response to the IAIS Consultation on the Holistic Framework

On August 15, IIF submitted a response letter to the IAIS consultation Revisions related to the Holistic Framework for Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector. 

Weekly Insight: Sustainability in focus

Record high economic policy uncertainty is a key risk for business sentiment; Wall of worry prompts bets on rising gold prices and stronger JPY—and a further drop in stocks; Synchronized global easing could drive another round of synchronized global debt accumulation; China’s Belt and Road Initiative—concerns about debt and environmental sustainability 

Machine Learning in Credit Risk: 2nd Edition Summary Report

Following on from the IIF’s 2018 Machine Learning in Credit Risk survey, our 2nd Edition (2019) survey tracks industry progress in the adoption and implementation of these technologies. 

FRT Episode 45: TechSprint Takeaways With Jo Ann Barefoot

  Jo Ann Barefoot CEO Barefoot Innovation Group, LLC Barefoot Innovation Podcast Jo Ann and the IIF’s Adrien Delle-Case gi...

Global Macro Views: Rising Capital Outflows from China

US tariffs should be imposing a strain on China’s balance of payments, most obviously in the current account. But the surplus is rising, in part due to quite healthy exports. Instead, trade tensions may be manifesting in capital outflows, which are above 2012 levels and half 2015/6 levels. Tariffs may be raising RMB depreciation expectations, an issue of great importance to China’s policy makers and the rest of EM.

CEEMEA Views: Automation Risk in CEE

The risk of automation in CEE is relatively low compared to other EMs, but differs considerably within the region, with EU member countries facing less risk. The skill composition of employment appears to play an important role, as does an economy’s relative urbanization and labor market diversification.

Economic Views: Pemex and Mexico's Current Account

Pemex’s woes turned Mexico into an oil importer. The current account could improve significantly if Pemex’s planned output increase materializes. Vulnerability would rise if Pemex underperforms, as gasoline imports would continue growing.

Oil Market: Supply and Demand Likely to Balance

We still expect Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Growth in non-OPEC supply combined with deceleration in global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020, is offsetting upward pressure on oil prices from rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply.

 

 

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