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CEEMEA Views: Romania - Growing Imbalances

Consumption-driven growth has led to increasing imbalances and inflation. Ad-hoc policy changes weigh on sentiment, undermining new investment. Further stimulus would pose risks to macroeconomic stability and outlook. 

Economic Views: Argentina's Debt Risk

Argentina’s public debt will decline markedly, if fiscal consolidation is large and long-lasting. Fiscal easing could critically affect debt levels, and complicate refinancing of maturing debt. Debt vulnerability will remain high for years.

IIF responds to IASB Exposure Draft on IBOR reform

The IIF has submitted a comment letter to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) Exposure Draft Interest Rate Benchmark Reform – Pr...

FRT Episode 39: S&P CEO Doug Peterson

S&P CEO Doug Peterson joined FRT during the IIF Spring Membership Meeting & G20 conference in Tokyo, discussing investments in innovative technologies, environmental management tools and metrics on plastics footprints, and the necessary evolution of pension systems.

 

May 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 3.8% 3m/3m SAAR in May. Business and financial conditions drag growth down. Imports appear to have bottomed out, improving trade.

June 2019 Global Regulatory Update

The June 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on Advocacy on Addressing Market Fragmentation, Evaluation of Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) Reforms and the Basel III Finalization & Cumulative Capital Impact Study.

Weekly Insight: Trade wars bad, lower rates good

Analysts begin to price in trade war impact on corporate earnings—but estimates are still pretty upbeat; Emerging markets: how long will the boost from lower global rates last?; Risk-return tradeoff on carry trades looking more attractive; Convergence in the air for Euro Area bond spreads; LIBOR transition—some progress on moving towards new reference rates, but asset managers lag

Global Macro Views: Nonsense Output Gaps and Current Account Positions

Euro periphery current account balances have almost all swung into surplus, which is often cited as positive evidence that competitiveness has been restored. But the swing to current account surplus has a big cyclical component due to still large output gaps in some cases. Adjusted for slack, Euro periphery current accounts are mostly still in deficit.

Macro Notes: Positive Shift in Ukraine’s Current Account

We have estimated Ukraine’s financing gap at $2 bn (1.5% of GDP). A key ingredient is a stable current account despite growth recovery. This is due to a favorable shift in the current account toward the EU. Domestic politics aside, a key risk is the growth slowdown in Europe.

Economic Views: Venezuela’s Oil Sector under Sanctions

Venezuela’s oil sector has been in decline for decades. As in Iran, US sanctions are having a severe impact, making the oil output collapse almost unprecedented. Even though sanctions did not deter Asian buyers, the oil sector’s outlook is dim unless policies change.

 

 

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