We have introduced a new measure of real money positioning in EM, which extends the IIF’s well-known work on capital flows to positioning. Our positioning data are calibrated to match stock positions in the BoP, so by construction are representative of the full positioning picture.

The December 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, cyber security, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events.

Sentiment on oil prices remained weak amid doubts that the planned production cuts will be enough to rein in oversupply, and as investors suspect that OPEC+ would honor their pledge to cut production. We expect Brent oil prices to average $67/bbl in 2019 if the OPEC+ agreement is fully implemented.

U.S.: $1.5tn in student loans present fiscal risks; $1tn in leveraged loans vulnerable to rising interest rates ; Banking flows to the UK weaken since the Brexit referendum; Inflation under control in most key EMs; but central bank independence under scrutiny in many countries; RMB gains as a global reserve currency; foreign investor demand for bonds shifts from China to other EMs

Foreign capital flows to EM are a key, but incomplete, part of the positioning story, since they capture buying and selling, but not all the valuation changes in between. We unveil a new database that adds valuation changes to our existing flows work, giving, to our knowledge, the most complete and up-to-date EM positioning snapshot.

EM Growth Tracker at 3.9% 3m/3m sa ar in November. Decline driven by hard data but offset by improved corporate sentiment. Trade volumes improve, but internal demand is still weak. LatAm and EM Asia trackers decline.

The November 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, cybersecurity, risk management, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events. 

Sanctions depressed capital flows to Russia. Despite banks losing much foreign funding, domestic credit in local currency revived, and lending rates normalized in due course. High reserves cushioned the cost of sanctions, as did robust oil exports and low external debt.

The November/December Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.