Many emerging markets have worked hard to improve investor relations practices, helping to support the massive expansion of the EM debt universe--from $5 trillion in 2005 to over $23 trillion in 2020.

The coming decade could see a surge in government debt ratios in a reflationary environment—a sharp contrast to the austerity bias of the last decade; high and rising debt levels make investor relations a top priority for emerging markets.

Tourism will likely be among the last sectors to recover from the COVID-19 shock. The recovery has been slow and uneven, and further warning signs are emerging. We continue to expect a 60-70% drop in tourism revenues in our baseline scenario. Rising infections in the United States and Europe may require renewed lockdowns. Countries like Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey would be most affected.

The Hong Kong Autonomy Act (HKAA) stipulates potentially highly damaging sanctions. At the extreme, the U.S. may disconnect China’s banks and corporates from the U.S. Dollar. Should the conflict escalate, we worry about unintended consequences for global markets.

This briefing note summarizes some of the key digital finance themes that emerged throughout the Annual Membership Meeting, focusing on six main topical themes that surfaced in various discussions during the weeklong virtual event, including customer-centricity, cross-border standardization, regulatory frameworks, digital identity, ethical use of data, and artificial intelligence.

Progress is being made on fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. The sharp fall in oil revenues will exceed the cut in public spending, leading to a large fiscal deficit. Strong adjustment and partial recovery in oil prices could make the fiscal position more sustainable. 

The IIF Regulatory Affairs Department is pleased to share a comprehensive summary of the key regulatory and policy discussions that took place during the IIF’s 2020 Annual Membership Meeting.

More than half of global GDP is nature-dependent, but ecosystem collapse is a risk in a fifth of all countries. Despite the financial materiality of ecosystem risks, financial institutions lack a nature-related risk disclosure framework.