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Macro Notes: Russia - Geopolitical Risks Dominate in 2021


Economic Views: Fiscal Deficit Monetization in Argentina

As last year, Argentina won’t be able to avoid deficit monetization. We model primary deficit scenarios and their impact on inflation. The g...

Frontier Africa Report: COVID-19 Exposes Pre-Existing Challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa experienced the first recession in thirty years in 2020 due to the COVID-19 shock. The global recession weighed on external demand and pandemic-related shutdowns on domestic activity. However, commodity prices fared better than expected, and the virus spread less than in other regions. Oil exporters were hit hardest, while countries with more diversified export bases appear less affected. The economic slowdown has had a strong effect on countries’ fiscal positions, and policy space is scarce. As a result, debt is rising across the region, and many countries are seeking relief through the G20 DSSI. Improved market sentiment has led to a return of foreign investors and alleviated financing pressure. Growth is expected to rebound strongly in 2021 where macro and policy environments are supportive. Risks, however, skew to the downside and stem from a second COVID-19 wave and poliical instability.

IIF Staff Paper on Expectations for Biden’s Approach to Financial Regulatory Policy 

The IIF has prepared a brief paper on our expectations for the incoming Biden administration’s approach to financial regulatory policy in advance of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration.

Weekly Insight: Heyday for EM Corporate Eurobonds

EM corporates have racked up $4 trillion in FX debt since 2007, bringing total FX exposure to $7 trillion; More in store:  current USD weakness—with no Fed rate hike seen pre-2025—sets the stage for continued buildup in FX debt; EM corporate eurobond issuance reached $380 billion in 2020, up 10% from 2019; a record 95% of that was in USD; Most of this issuance was driven by non-financial corporates ($220bn), especially in China ($68 billion)

Global Macro Views: Taper Tantrum Risk in 2021

The global economy feels like back in 2010 after the Great Recession. Back then, the big central banks had eased and were locking in “low-for-...

FRT Episode 84: Machine Learning Governance

Rachel Bailey, a senior manager specializing in machine learning in model risk and validation at Lloyds Banking Group, joins us on FRT to discuss key findings from our recent Machine Learning Governance study.

China Spotlight: U.S. Sanctions: Lessons from the Russia Case 

Tensions and disputes between the U.S. and China are likely to continue, possibly resulting in further sanctions. We focus on lessons learned from the U.S. sanctions policy towards Russia, and what those could mean for U.S. sanctions towards Hong Kong or China. 

Economic Views: EM Fiscal Deficits

Fiscal deficits in most EMs widened sharply last year, … due to substantially higher spending to a large extent. Deficit reduction hence re...

IIF response to IAIS AP on Supervision of Climate-Related Risks

On January 11, the IIF submitted its response to the IAIS/SIF consultation on the Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks.




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