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Macro Notes: South Africa - The Government Must Hold the Line

The release of the 2019 MTBPS was a wake-up call for politicians, just like in 2017. The 2020 budget in February, union negotiations, and Eskom resolution are key. Moody’s is likely to downgrade South Africa’s rating to sub-IG sometime in 2020. A deep domestic market and low short-term and FX debt mitigate our concerns. But with deteriorating debt dynamics, South Africa is exposed to external shocks.

Algeria: Seeking a Change in Course 

Protests have continued since February, with the public calling for an overhaul of the ruling elite, but we expect limited change in the power structure. Economic activity will remain weak, as twin deficits persist and reserves fall. The 2020 budget envisages tightening, but deep reforms are needed. 

FRT Episode 54: Singapore Fintech Festival

Conan French speaks with Sopnendu Mohanty, Chief FinTech Officer at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, about key themes from this year’s festival and intersections with the IIF digital finance topics.

Economic Views: Do Depreciations Help Commodity Exporters?

Depreciation did not boost exports in commodity producers. The picture is more nuanced as far as manufacturing goes. Manufacturing exports respond...

Green Weekly Insight: Climate Science is the New Rocket Science

Reflecting the rapidly growing demand for sustainability-themed research, we will from time to time be publishing a Green Weekly Insight focused entirely on ESG and sustainable finance. Comments and suggestions welcome!

GMV: The Inventory Correction in Global Manufacturing

When recession fears were at their most elevated a few months ago, ... we argued that weak manufacturing reflects mostly inventory overhangs, ...&nb...

Macro Notes: EU Structural Funds Boost Growth in CEE

EU structural funds have boosted growth in Eastern Europe, allowing for strong income convergence with the rest of the EU. Cuts in the 2021-27 EU budget will lead to smaller contributions, but a sudden slowdown is unlikely, and convergence will continue.

Iraq: Tough Path to Recovery

Iraq’s path to recovery is inhibited by continuous political instability and a lack of institutional capacity. While the PM has resigned, there is much uncertainty on meeting protesters’ demands for economic and political reforms. The economic recovery from the war has been at a slow pace.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Flows to EM Remain Mixed

Portfolio flows to Emerging Markets were $20.3 bn in November. Equity and debt flows were $4.4 bn and $15.9 bn, respectively. Net capital flows into EM were -$23.4 billion in October.

CEEMEA Views: Turkey - Credit Remains the Main Policy Tool

Bank lending remains the main policy tool to boost growth. Macroeconomic imbalances seem manageable at this time. Further stimulus, however, could intensify demand pressures.

 

 

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