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IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Timid Recovery in Flows

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $4.1 bn in May. Equity and debt inflows were $0.7 bn and 3.5 bn. EM x/ China equity flows remain depressed.

CEEMEA Views: Ghana - Preserving IMF Program Gains

We assess Ghana’s external financing risk as low compared to regional peers. Eurobond issuance and multilateral support help offset impact of COVID-19. As a result, we estimate only moderate reserve losses of $800 mn in 2020. External debt amortization appears manageable this year and over 2021-22. Outflows could be triggered if deficits grow and/or are financed by the BOG.

GCC: Grappling With Its Worst Economic Crisis 

Shocked by COVID-19 and the plunge in oil prices, the six GCC states will experience their worst recession in history. However, most GCC public sectors and banks are well positioned to absorb the shocks due to their large buffers and aggressive fiscal adjustments. 

Weekly Insight: Corporate Debt in the Crosshairs

With COVID-19 clouding corporate revenue and earnings prospects, highly-leveraged firms will struggle with debt service; 

IIF Letter To G20, IMF, World Bank and Paris Club On the Private Sector Terms of Reference for the G20/Paris Club DSSI

Informed by our working group discussions, this letter is meant to frame the accompanying Terms of Reference for private sector consideration of borrower requests within the DSSI.

Terms of Reference for Voluntary Private Sector Participation in the G20/Paris Club DSSI

The Terms of Reference are a toolkit for DSSI-eligible sovereign borrowers that request forbearance from their private creditors. This new framework offers a flexible template for in-scope borrowers and their private creditors to advance conversations and enable voluntary debt service suspension, on terms in line with official bilateral creditors.

GMV: How Abnormal Were Q1 Outflows From EM?

Non-resident portfolio outflows from EM have been large, amounting to a five standard deviation shock in March and April.

Macro Notes: The COVID-19 Recession in CEEMEA

We now expect an even deeper output contraction of 5.7% in the CEEMEA region. Effects of the COVID-19 shock are increasingly visible in the data for March-April. We downgrade growth in South Africa, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Russia. The fall in activity prompted authorities to implement fiscal stimulus measures. Together with cyclical revenue weakness, additional spending will widen deficits. CEEMEA central banks cut rates and some began government bond purchases.

IIF Responds to IASB Phase 2 Exposure Draft on IBOR Reform

The IIF submitted a comment letter to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) Exposure Draft

Economic Views: LatAm Growth and COVID-19

We downgraded global and LatAm growth markedly in April, but since then activity has contracted even faster than expected.

 

 

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