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Economic Views: Debt Sustainability in EM

We scan EM for debt risk systematically. Debt is high and increasing in some EMs, … including Brazil and South Africa. Rollover risk due ...

U.S. Regulatory Update -- July 2019

Please find our latest U.S. Regulatory Update, covering the Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, Congressional Libra Hearings, Stress Testing and CCAR results, and Capitol Hill updates, among other topics.

FRT Episode 43: Libra and Beyond

Following his testimony at the US Congressional hearings on Facebook’s proposed Libra digital currency, Professor Chris Brummer joins FRT to discuss the top takeaways and the potential implications for other initiatives in the digital currency landscape (with Brad Carr & Conan French)


CEEMEA Regional Report: Monetary Policy to Support Growth

Labor shortages and fragile investor confidence will constrain output growth. Policies will likely become more accommodative, thanks to a dovish ECB and Fed. The external financing and inflation outlook will remain challenging for some. Slow progress in addressing structural problems will intensify vulnerabilities.

Key Takeaways from Libra Congressional Hearings

The IIF has summarized key themes that emerged from the Facebook Libra hearings before both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee this week in Washington.

June 2019 EM Growth Tracker

Our EM Growth Tracker came in at 3.5% (3m/3m SAAR) in June, 0.3pp lower than the month prior. The deterioration in our tracker was mainly driven by weaker hard data (explaining more than half of the decline) but exacerbated by business surveys and financial variables.

Weekly Insight: In the valley of debt

Low rates may boost short-term growth—but will discourage deleveraging even as debt continues to pile up; Incoming EC President Ursula von der Leyen puts climate change and sustainable finance top of the policy agenda; LIBOR transition update: focus on risks for asset managers; Venezuela: estimated total debt of over 200% of GDP, with external debt accounting for 80% of total debt

Global Macro Views: Why is the Dollar not Falling?

Despite the shift in the Fed's stance, the Dollar has refused to fall versus the rest of the G10. One reason is that other central banks are also shifting dovish, which limits the scope for interest differentials. Another is that the importance of rate differentials as a driver of FX has fallen, such that the dovish Fed shift now carries less signal for the Dollar. The Dollar is “stuck,” a dilemma for policy makers who want a weaker currency.

Economic Views: The Drivers of Growth in EM

Growth differentials across EM are large. Asian EMs outperformed in the long-run, mostly due to higher productivity growth. Low productivity explains low growth, in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa.

Global Debt Monitor - July 2019

Spurred by falling interest rates, global debt rose by a hefty $3 trillion in Q1 2019.  At over $246 trillion, global debt is now just $2 trillion shy of the all-time high of Q1 2018.  EM debt hit a record $69 trillion in Q1 2019—over 216% of GDP. 



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